7:30
AM
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Introductions and Breakfast
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Each COFES attendee from the user community is assigned
a leading industry analyst who will act as their host for the event. The host's
primary responsibility is to make sure that you get the most value possible out
of the event and introduce you to key industry players. Plan to meet your host/introducer
for breakfast.
Attire for COFES is weekend casual (no suits); shirts
withcollars; sandals or sneakers. Shorts if it's hot.
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8:30
AM
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Kickoff: Opening Session and
Call to Order
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Your hosts, Cyon Research, will set the stage for the
day's activities.
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9:00
AM
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Keynote: Paul Saffo
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR VIDEO
Paul Saffo
DISCERN
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Cultivating Foresight: Seeing Clearly Amidst
Exponential Change
Instinct tells us to pull in and focus on the present when crises hit and uncertainty
overwhelms us. But this instinct is as wrong as the instinct that tells us to turn
against a skid on an icy road. Like driving, forecasting can be learned, and one
need not be a rocket scientist in order to see clearly into the future. In fact
a few simple heuristics can go a long way towards making sense of what lies ahead.
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Paul Saffo
Paul is a forecaster with over two decades experience
helping corporate and governmental clients understand and respond to the dynamics
of large-scale, long-term change. He is Managing Director of Foresight at Discern
Analytics and teaches technology forecasting at Stanford where he is a Consulting
Associate Professor in the Engineering School. Paul also teaches at Singularity
University where he chairs the Future Studies track. He is a non-resident Senior
Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering
Sciences. Paul holds degrees from Harvard College, Cambridge University, and Stanford
University.
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10:15
AM
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Technology Suite Briefings
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Our Technology Suite vendors will present briefings
on their technology and research:
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
C3D Labs
Oleg Zykov
CEO
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Geometric Modeling Kernels circa 2020
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Geometry modeling kernels that have lived through the UNIX and Windows era now must
make the transition to support a plethora of cloud strategies. How will this evolve
over the next 6 years? What radical changes can we expect developers to require
from their kernels and commercial components? Can the existing kernels make the
transition, or will new requirements open the door to acceptance of a next generation
of kernels?
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C4UC is developing a software tool that allows models (system dynamic and agent-based)
to interact as if they were in a single, combined model, and it can do this even
when the owners of those models are not willing to let their models beyond their
own firewalls. In other words, the software will allow models/data held securely
by independent stakeholders at multiple sites to run in an integrated framework
without the stakeholders having to “trust” one another. This ability to allow stakeholders
with a large and complex joint challenge to work together even when they don’t trust
one another is likely to be a game changer.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
IBM
Brett Hillhouse
Worldwide Automotive Executive
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Continuous Engineering for the Complex and Connected
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Internet of Things (IoT) is not a dream. Today we’re seeing how more intelligent,
instrumented, and interconnected products are transforming markets. How will manufacturers
manage the complexity of designing systems of systems, while still being agile enough
to respond to rapid changes in their markets? What is required to be able to engage
in continuous engineering to address the ever increasing pressure to rethink, redesign,
reintegrate, and re-innovate--continuously improving products and systems? How will
design and manufacturing firms capture and share their engineering knowledge for
efficient development of these complex and connected products?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Lagoa
Thiago Costa
CEO
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Disruptive Product Development
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Lagoa's 3D cloud platform is transforming everything from visual prototyping to
how customers engage consumers. Join us for a discussion on how to disrupt the product
development lifecycle. Thiago’s background is unique as he's done VFx on movies
such as Avatar as well as worked at the Stanford physics lab and Ubisoft. Join Thiago
and Chris Williams in a disruptive discussion on the future of product development.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Microsoft
Kris Iverson
Principal Development Engineer, 3D Printing
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3D Printing. Facilitating the Maker market and accelerating growth in the Enterprise
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3D Printing is much more than hype or the consumerization of additive manufacturing.
It’s quickly establishing itself as the essential new capability for Millennials
and for facilitating modern work practices. Please join us for a discussion about
the state of the market, new work practices, futures and Microsoft’s role in 3D
printing, together with a live demonstration.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Santa Fe Institute
Chris Wood
Vice-President
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Working with the Santa Fe Institute
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Why do so many companies and government organizations find it useful to work with
the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) which is at heart a basic science organization? Because
SFI has learned how to address really hard problems. SFI is dedicated to the scientific
understanding of complex adaptive systems: systems composed of many interacting
components, each with many inter-connections, often mathematically non-linear, that
can change and adapt over time. Small changes in one part of such a system can lead
to massive and unpredictable changes in the system as a whole. Some of the most
pressing challenges facing science and society today, including global conflict,
clean energy, climate change, stable and productive economies, indeed the sustainability
of human civilization, involve precisely these kinds of complex adaptive systems.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Siemens PLM Software
Margarita Pariente
Director, Business Development
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From Machine Automation to Machine Autonomy by 2020
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Machine automation has been evolving in response to the demand for greater productivity
and growth, improved workplace safety, and the ability to compete with manufacturing
in low wage economies. However, advances in machine autonomy are required in order
to make the next leap forward. What technologies will be required to support the
operation of machines with greater autonomy by 2020? How do you design and manage
productive work spaces that are flexible and where humans share space and tasks
with robots?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Top Systems
Sergey Bikulov
Executive Director
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PLM Can Be Easy
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The world of product development, manufacturing, and maintenance continues to get
more complicated. PLM is one tool that we lean on to address this, but PLM is too
hard. Can we find some non-cloud-based solution that isn’t too complicated to install,
configure, customize, and is not cumbersome to use? Top Systems will share its thinking
on this, including some interesting results achieved by applying parametric technology
to PLM.
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10:55
AM
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Break
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11:00
AM
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Analyst and User Briefings
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We've invited some of the brightest and most talented
thinkers, analysts and users, to each lead a working discussion on an issue they
view as critical. These discussions are strictly limited to no more than 24 people
at a time.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Paul Saffo
Discern
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Keynoter's Session
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An interactive discussion on the topics raised in Paul's
keynote.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Phares Noel
Cyon Research
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STEM Evolution
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STEM focus, education, and literacy have a direct impact on the vitality of our
economy. By 2020, how will the tools of education change? How will our needs change?
What STEM skills will employers of 2020 value? How do we shift our existing education
systems to deliver future employees with those skills? What mechanisms might we
need beyond our current education systems? How might we best leverage our influence
to achieve these goals?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
John Kizior
AECOM
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Rethinking the BIM Ecosystem
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BIM technology is mature. Powerful tools are available for the entire building life
cycle, as are established best practices and industry standards. Why is the process
still broken? “Silos” are less the problem today than is the industry’s
collective myopia. For many, strategic vision is less about perceiving what might
be possible down the road, and more about understanding and seeing the present clearly.
What are the fundamental transformations possible today? What are the roadblocks
to those transformations? How will that change by 2020?
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What are the trends that are likely to impact the need for CAD over the next six
years? With babyboomers retiring, and fewer students graduating with engineering
degrees to replace them, a smaller pool of potential designers and engineering may
be one trend. What potential advances in our design tools might fill in some of
the gap over the next six years? What are the other trends we need to be watching
and responding to? How will they change our world and how will we need to evolve
our design tools and processes to meet the need?
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Jim Brown
Tech Clarity
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Smart Products and the Internet of Things
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How do product developers, manufacturers, and engineering
software developers need to change to support the continual shift to smart, connected
products? Manufacturers are designing more software-enabled products to drive innovation,
flexibility, and cost reduction. The "Internet of Things" (IoT) is not just an interesting
concept – it’s changing the economics of industries. What will the development
tools of the future need to provide in order to bring these products to market fast
without compromising quality? To support them through their lifecycles?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Dennis Nagy
BeyondCAE
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Simulation 2020
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A realistic assessment of engineering simulation six years down the road must start
with key enabling trends. What are these trends? How will they spread? What might
block their progress? What do we KNOW will change? What do we THINK will change?
What developments might sidetrack everything?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Steve Wolfe
CAD/CAM Publishing
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Engineering Software Makers Can’t Afford to be Aloof From Politics
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Since its inception 40 years ago, the engineering software industry has had little
involvement in politics. But the industry’s growth in revenues and profits has attracted
attention from politicians, bureaucrats, and lawyers. Litigation by patent trolls,
anti-trust actions, arcane tax laws that trap cash offshore, liability suits, the
ACA, and the ever present desire to regulate every aspect of business has created
a political climate that software firms can no longer afford to ignore. What can
engineering software companies do to protect themselves and perhaps even benefit
from government initiatives?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
David Prawel
LongView Advisors
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Impact of the Additive Manufacturing Explosion
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The business of discrete product manufacturing is likely to have been dramatically
transformed by the year 2020, much of it a result of the explosion of Additive Manufacturing
(AM). What transformations are we likely to see? Will AM change the economics for
small-shop manufacturers? Will they be able to play a serious role in global supply
chains? What decisions should we be making today to thrive in this new landscape?
How will product distribution change in the next 6 years? Should UPS and Fed-Ex
be concerned, or will they be leading the change?
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11:50
AM
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Analyst and User Briefings
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Analyst and user briefings, round 2, with different
analysts, different topics.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Richard Riff
Executive Consulting
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Systems Engineering 2020
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A vision of what systems engineering could be by 2020 and what needs to change in
order to realize that vision.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Tom Sawyer
Engineering News Record
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Cognition?
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With the formation of the IBM Watson Group, we are at the early stages of deployment
of what can thought of as applied cognition. Yes, it’s very early and the
technology is crude relative to what we’ve come to expect from Sci-Fi, but
by 2020, applied cognition will be as pervasive as the internet and life without
it will be equally unthinkable. And that’s just at the consumer level. What
are the implications and opportunities for design and engineering? How will jobs
and our education system react when much of the lower level thinking we do can be
done better and faster by our device?
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Jack Byers
VMI
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Trends Affecting Global Landscape by 2020
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Innovations, convergent, and/or disruption trends change the business landscape.
These trends also evolve and mutate. Jack developed his Beyond Line of Sight tool
to see and understand trends well in advance of their impact. What do we know today
about trends that are likely to be affecting the global landscape by 2020? From
whom and where will the disruption manifest itself? And how can you leverage that
knowledge to your advantage?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Monica Schnitger
Schnitger Corp
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Data Capture Grows up: Reality as Context
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Data capture is everywhere. The real utility of Data Capture comes after the capture
stage – when you’ve processed the data and are able to use the processed data to
provide a reality context. Today, most who use Data Capture are modeling on top
of point-clouds, for as-is models. What if you could just model from the point cloud?
What if the result from photogrammetry could be smart enough to know that "this"
is a patient's nose for cosmetic surgery? Or that "this" is a surface blemish in
the dam, while "that" is a crack from the interior?
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The evolution of the channel ecosystem will change even more rapidly as we approach
2020. Which drivers will force our existing channels to rethink their business model?
What are the key strategies that will survive the coming transitions? How best may
the channel and vendors plan for the paradigm shifts that will undoubtedly affect
the way that our customers consume and value the new/next generations of information
technology?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Martin Fischer
CIFE
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STEM, Jobs, and Education
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The nature of jobs and what we do at work has drastically
changed since 1980. Our education system and what it teaches has not. This second
part of two STEM-focused briefings focuses on the connection between the domain
of STEM and the domain of the industries we care about: Manufacturing and AEC. If
much of what is currently taught as STEM education is made available online by 2020
as some expect, what should universities teach so that the products and buildings
made in 2020 perform dramatically better?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Chris De Neef
Fast Track Consulting
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Prediction Horizons
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Jules Verne predicted inventions a century ahead of their realization. We seem to
have trouble predicting what our world will look like more than a year from now!
Do we lack Jules Verne's vision; did our prediction horizon shrink dramatically
due to our accelerating pace of innovation; or is something else going on here?
We’ll start with a look at COFES’ track record in envisioning the future, and see
what we got right, wrong, and what we can learn for the future.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Brian Lockyear
Slate Shingle Studio
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The Delicate Balance of Thoughtful Consideration and Speed
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Architects, designers, and engineers used to have the luxury of carefully considering
the smallest aspects of their design. Much of this luxury happened because of the
amount of time required for the tedious tasks of design development and documentation.
Today, our software tools have vastly shortened that phase. Execution speed is the
enemy of thoughtful design iteration. We need that thoughtful design if we want
buildings to be worthy of standing 100 years instead of 10. How can we reconcile
those two opposing forces and stop our drive towards the equivalent of “fast
food” design? Where can we find driving forces to offset the economics of
getting it out the door quickly?
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12:40
PM
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Lunch
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2:15
PM
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Technology Suite Briefings
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Round 2 of Technology Suite briefings:
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C3D Labs
Oleg Zykov
CEO
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Supporting Business Model Evolution
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The Cloud and mobile have seriously disrupted the traditional business models for
software. SaaS, freemium, subscription, pay-on-demand, etc. are just the beginning.
And traditional engineering design tools (CAD, simulation, etc.) are also moving
beyond the realm of the professional and into areas such as DIY. If you’re a kernel
supplier or a component developer, what strategies support this explosion of business
models?
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This will be the first public demonstration of the C4UC solution for solving the
stakeholder problem. Mike will show three different, but interrelated system dynamic
models each located on a different computer, and separated by independent firewalls,
all interacting to solve a single model, without exposing data or algorithms.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
IBM
Brett Hillhouse
Worldwide Automotive Executive
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Continuous Engineering for the Complex and Connected
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Internet of Things (IoT) is not a dream. Today we’re seeing how more intelligent,
instrumented, and interconnected products are transforming markets. How will manufacturers
manage the complexity of designing systems of systems, while still being agile enough
to respond to rapid changes in their markets? What is required to be able to engage
in continuous engineering to address the ever increasing pressure to rethink, redesign,
reintegrate, and re-innovate--continuously improving products and systems? How will
design and manufacturing firms capture and share their engineering knowledge for
efficient development of these complex and connected products?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Lagoa
Thiago Costa
CEO
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Disruptive Product Development
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Lagoa's 3D cloud platform is transforming everything from visual prototyping to
how customers engage consumers. Join us for a discussion on how to disrupt the product
development lifecycle. Thiago’s background is unique as he's done VFx on movies
such as Avatar as well as worked at the Stanford physics lab and Ubisoft. Join Thiago
and Chris Williams in a disruptive discussion on the future of product development.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Microsoft
Simon Floyd
Director, PLM Solutions
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Advanced Decision Making with Predictive Analytics and Business Intelligence
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By 2020 we will live in a world of 50 billion personal devices and 10 trillion fit-for-purpose systems facilitated by the Internet of Things and powered by information. In a future where information is the new currency, opportunities are abound. Please join for a discussion about Microsoft’s role in machine learning, predictive analytics, advanced decision making and the impact on design & engineering.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Santa Fe Institute
Chris Wood
Vice-President
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Adaptive Computation for Automated Program Repair
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Errors in computer programs. We hate them. The Santa Fe Institute has been involved
in research that applies strategies used by biological systems and applied similar
strategies to tackle the problems of errors in computer programs. Adaptive Computation
is a strategy for using what we’ve learned from biological computation and information-processing
to inform the kinds of computational systems we humans build and deploy. We’ll discuss
this work of Forrest, Weimer, and their colleagues that uses adaptive computational
techniques to address a long-standing dream of modern computing: automated repair
of errors in computer programs.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Siemens PLM Software
Brian Grogan
Director, Product Management
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New opportunities for PLM component technology in 2020
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Design and manufacturing software vendors want to benefit from advances in technology
and business models, such as cloud deployment and SaaS, but at the same time need
to meet customer demand for zero-regression application functionality and quality,
as well as maintaining interoperability with other systems. How will these business
and deployment models evolve over the next 6 years? What are the underlying technology
implications for software components such as 3D geometry kernels, constraint solvers,
and shape search? What types of new software applications will look to adopt PLM
component technologies in 2020?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Top Systems
Sergey Koslov
Director of R&D
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Parallel Computing in Engineering Software
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Top Systems will discuss new approaches to programming and architecture designed
to improve performance of complex design software systems, with examples from the
new RGK geometric kernel and T-FLEX CAD. A key point in this discussion will be
thinking on how to drive better performance from multi-core and multi-threading
hardware.
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3:00
PM
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Analyst and User Briefings
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Analyst briefings, round 3, with different analysts,
different topics.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Brian Seitz
Cyon Research
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Portfolio Management When the Future is Fuzzy
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Portfolio Management is easy when the rate of change is constant and risks are clear,
but how do you manage resources in a hyper-volatile and interconnected environment?
How do you manage the tradeoff between Lean and Resilient? What tools and methodologies
can link Business Strategy, Information Technology and Product/Market Planning to
an optimum path in given an unknowable or uncertain destination?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Jon Peddie
Jon Peddie Research
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2020 Computer Graphics
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The visual and audio output we marvel at today will, in 2020, seem painfully crude,
slow, and have limited our productivity. Compute devices, projection systems, natural
user interfaces, and uncompromised ownership and security of our work will give
us friction-free total access to an enormous amounts of data, worldwide collaboration,
and almost instantaneous physical prototypes. What’s coming down the pike
and how do we mold our strategies to take advantage of it?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Peter Thorne
Cambashi
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The Death of Coding (Will Bring Life to Software)
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Code and Software have been almost synonymous for 50 years. Elegant and efficient
code often makes useful but inflexible and unresilient software. But writing code
is not the only way software can be defined, engineered, built, and tested. We’ll
discuss new approaches to software development, especially for embedded systems,
where the design takes place at the systems engineering and requirements level and
the code is derived (or even evolved) but not written. Design of design
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Chad Jackson
Lifecycle Insights
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It’s 2020: Do You Know Where Your Software Is?
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Traditionally, design tools have been loaded and run locally. Recently, software
providers have started to offer design tools (CAD, simulation, analysis, collaboration,
etc.) with a variety of deployment options (public cloud, private cloud, virtualized,
as well as “file-less”) and new business models. What are the implications
for both the end-user and his/her firm for these new offerings. How does this affect
the management of design data? How should we think about this as we look six years
down the road?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Don Tolle
CIMdata
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Examining the Relationship Between Requirements and Model-Based Systems Engineering
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Well defined and documented functional requirements
are essential to the new product development process. Effective Model-Based Systems
Engineering (MBSE) systems are both defined by and define/refine these requirements.
How do we resolve the circular reference? Where are the major gaps/disconnects in
the current systems engineering/requirements definition process? What impact will
systems modeling tools and emerging cross-domain data exchange standards such as
Modelica, SysML and FMI have on bridging these MBSE gaps? What will best practice
look like by 2020?
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Jay will review the performance of the technical software
companies and industry and their prospects for 2014 and beyond. Formerly a senior
analyst and managing director with Merrill Lynch, Jay is now the senior research
analyst at Griffin Securities. This will be his 13th annual review of the industry
at COFES, and your only opportunity to see him in something besides a business suit.
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
Tom Pennino
TP Technologies
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EDA 2020
|
A realistic assessment of the EDA industry six years down the road. What are the
key enabling trends? How might these trends spread? What might block their progress?
What do we KNOW will change? What do we THINK will change? What developments might
sidetrack everything?
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CLICK ON PHOTO FOR AUDIO
David Sherburne
Carestream Health
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The Evolution of Product
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What am I selling? What does my customer think I’m selling? What is my customer
willing to pay for? What do I need to do to deliver that? Then, comes: How do I
do that better, more efficiently, with less risk and more profit? As we head towards
2020, the move to “customer experience” and the “Servitization
of Product”, much of the answers to these questions will change. How does
that change the way we need to think about product and the tools we interact with
to create “product”?
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3:45
PM
|
Break
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4:00
PM
|
First Congress: Maieutic Parataxis
|
Maieutic: The midwifery of knowledge.
Parataxis: The juxtaposition of ideas, without connection
or conjunction
We will be hosting a series of five-minute vignettes
drawn from topics and ideas that, while perhaps not yet fully formed, are likely
to impact your thinking about how we design, build, and interact with software in
the future.
Take a look at http://cofes.com/mp
to see the Maieutic Parataxis presentations from previous COFES!
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5:15
PM
|
Free
|
5:45
PM
|
Buses leave The Scottsdale Plaza
Resort for Evening Under the Stars
|
Buses will be leaving from the main entrance of The
Scottsdale Plaza Resort*
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have
paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event
|
6:30
PM
|
Evening Under the Stars at Los
Cedros
|
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We’re headed out into truly wide-open spaces and
a sweeping view of the sky once again. For 2014, we’re headed back to Los
Cedros, a Moroccan citadel for Arabian horses. A great western cookout, and for
those who want a closer look at the magnificent Arizona sky, we have a couple of
major-league telescopes. A COFES highlight!
|
*Guests of COFES Attendees must be registered and have
paid a supplemental registration fee in order to attend this event
|
9:30
PM
|
Buses Leave the Evening Event
for The Scottsdale Plaza Resort
|
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We will return to the resort between 10:00 and 11:00
pm.
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